Surely must be worth a punt, I reckon. The models differ on the detail, but the predicted ridge of high pressure for Thursday has remained consistent on the chart throughout. If you’re a “RASP Star Rating” kind of forecaster, you may be feeling a bit lukewarm about it. That rating is based on Thermalling Height, with deductions for windy and/or blue conditions. Since blue conditions are forecast, the rating is lower. I’m working on the basis that the models make no consideration of how wet the ground is, so there should be a good deal more humidity (and hence cloud) around than they predict. Only one way to find out though. “You’ve got to be in it to win it” and all that – See you there.
Mark
PS. There are significant NOTAMS around Shobdon, which you will certainly have to consider when making your XC plans.